it's that time again ladies and
gentlemen things are getting super
autistic today who's ready for the first
Tesla forecast of 2023 from James
Stevenson I cannot underscore enough on
Twitter haters might guess that Tessa's
recent deep price Cuts would wreck any
prospects for 2023 earnings growth I
hate to disappoint them but record
quarterly deliveries and earnings are
still coming in 2023. in this video
we're looking through James Stevenson's
Epic full 36 tweet thread James is an
invaluable asset to the Tesla community
and in elon's own words his favorite
Tesla analyst really if you like charts
and numbers sit back relax grab some
popcorn and or Lube up and enjoy the
show and if you'd rather watch paint
dryer then look at these charts and
numbers one rest in peace good luck with
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don't you check out today's exclusive
patreon video instead zero numbers but a
lot of very important facts the single
most important question you can ever ask
yourself if you're not a member of
patreon you can join with the card in
the corner or the link of the pin
comment first chart Tesla quarterly
deliveries by model and Factory actuals
through to 2022 and then forecasts after
2022. fairly self-explanatory here short
story new factories equals new
production equals more Vehicles being
produced equals that's how Tesla
continues to scale up their production
deliveries James's estimates has Tesla
exceeding 900 000 Vehicles delivered per
quarter in 2025 that would be close to
an annualized rate of about 4 million
vehicles per year mid decade two years
from now we're now looking at Tesla
Global deliveries S3 X and Y quarter by
quarter as we can see over time Model S
and X in blue and red here irrelevant
blips honestly if Tesla deleted these
products no one would [ __ ] care it's
a great place to debut technology and
drive costs down but honestly they don't
move the needle they contribute a little
bit more in terms of outsides profits
but again if they literally didn't sell
these products it would barely move the
needle it's all about the mass
production Vehicles the three and Y here
in white and gray as we can see three
fairly consistent deliveries are growing
over time but nowhere near as
meaningfully as model Y and gray here
again you can [ __ ] count on it model
y soon to become the world's
best-selling vehicle globally by unit
volume it will take around a million
units per year the world best-selling
vehicle selling a little bit more than
one million units historically then fast
forward a little bit more and Tesla
Model Y is going to be selling two times
as many units per year than the world's
best-selling vehicle ever has in a
single year and then probably three
times and probably four times more give
or take that's my own personal estimates
I think three and Y combined annually
total addressable Market maybe around 4
million units per year that may even be
conservative this of course is before
the Cyber truck and Tesla's 25 000 more
affordable vehicle which is going to
make model y look like a [ __ ] joke
but again the trend is what we really
want to focus on here can anyone pick a
word in fact I'll give you a hint a word
with just two letters that describes the
trend in Tesla's Global deliveries
quarter by quarter ready up this is what
you want to see we're now looking at
Tesla Global deliveries the model 3
versus the model y the three in white
the white and the gray here once again
we can see some growth in model 3
deliveries over time a bit crossover
Point Q4 2021 model y sold more Vehicles
than Tesla's model 3 and in q1 of 2022
significantly more Q2 same Q3 even more
and by Q4 Tesla's model wire coming
close to double the deliveries of the
model 3 and still growing rapidly if
anyone's wondering by the end of 2024
James has Tesla combined three and wire
sales approaching just very roughly
about 3 million units per year these
align pretty closely with my own
estimates we now look at Tesla quarterly
production and deliveries historical
data and some predictions again the
trend two letters one word up wait two
letters one word why does that sound
familiar it kind of reminds me of one of
my favorite films moving along I thought
I'd add James's commentary on this
particular chart my forecast assumes Tes
will grow earnings over the next several
years by making full self-driving so
compelling more buyers will pay for it
at a higher price before long totally
agree with this point by the way it's a
pretty hard sell right now for FSD
you're not going to lie like 15 000 US
Dollars don't get me wrong if you can
afford it it's worth it but that's a lot
of [ __ ] money just imagine when these
things could fully drive themselves you
don't need to be paying attention Game
Changer looking at historical data for
Tesla adjusted ebitda by quarter axles
through 2022 and then projections again
what is the trend here up not just up
but up in an exponential manner if I
were to guess the single your most
likely data point to correlate
relatively closely with Tesla over the
long term and don't get me wrong it's
going to be a loose correlation there's
going to be a lot of volatility on the
stock but I think this would be it we're
essentially looking at Tesla profits not
growing in a linear fashion in an
exponential fashion to the [ __ ] moon
this is a great breakdown how Tesla
makes an average one dollar of Revenue
at the bottom of this chart historical
data very first entry here 80 cents of
Tesla Revenue coming from Automotive
Sales not including regulatory credits
regulatory credit sales accounting for
two cents which is not what the Bears
have been in we're saying because it was
entirely Reliant upon these but anyway
let's not go down the rabbit hole we see
Automotive leasing a spec energy seven
cents service another six cents over
time we can see huge growth in Tesla
energy in particular and this is
understandable for those who don't
notice is currently ramping up a
gigantic mega pack Factory and last I
heard they had approximately 40 billion
dollars of orders already going to take
a while for them to fulfill those
everyone seems to be sleeping on Tesla
energy including myself my evaluation
model has absurdly low estimates energy
like ridiculous they're going to age
worse than some Wall Street analyst
estimates for Tesla vehicle deliveries
the reason I'm doing this give myself a
buffer to be conservative but as we get
more clear data about this Factory
ramping up I'll make some adjustments
and now how Tesla spends an average
dollar of Revenue if I were to sum this
chart up in a few words based on James's
estimates over time Tesla's costs
associated with actually producing
vehicles falling and the majority of
that Gap being made up for in pure
earnings in short the more green the
more money test is printing we're now
looking at Tesla non-gaap earnings per
delivery is in per vehicle delivered and
this will really put things in
perspective the estimates here from
James this is trailing 12 months 2023
Tesla to make approximately 11 and a
half maybe twelve thousand US dollars
per vehicle sold in non-gaap earnings
and yeah this is after the price cut
announcement probably not the narrative
you're currently hearing from Tesla
bears and if we back out regulatory
credits numbers barely move still
looking at over 10 000 US dollars per
vehicle sold in non-gaap earnings in
2023. I'll read the commentary on this
one as well this chart illustrates how
ending the wave is in the delivery wave
the fixed test was quarterly finished
goods inventory level the more more
Vehicles you produce per week the harder
it gets to deliver all of them by the
end of each quarter no [ __ ] Sherlock
thanks for telling us James but for real
though some people actually do need to
hear this production in Orange
deliveries in green beginning inventory
in blue and ending inventory in Pink as
we can see over time these grow why as
James points out the more Vehicles
you're making are recorded the harder it
becomes to deliver every single one of
those vehicles in that quarter I hate to
have to explain this but after some of
the truly absurd commentary around
Tesla's Q4 deliveries versus production
why is there such a big gap oh my God
there's no demand it is necessary just
to once again explain Tesla doesn't
count a vehicle as delivered until it's
actually delivered to the customer
there's a gap between when the vehicle
comes off a production line and when it
gets to a customer it's very very dim to
draw the conclusion that Tes are
struggling with demand they have an
oversupply of vehicles by looking at a
single data point the difference between
Tesla production deliveries in a single
quarter and assuming that that Gap means
they didn't sell those Vehicles not that
those vehicles are in transit again I
hate to have to explain this but I do
another chart that requires some
explanation here this chart shows how
much expense hits the income statement
per quarter related to the performance
plan Elon Musk has been working under a
CEO since 2018 all but around
0.004 billion dollars of the maximum
2.283 billion expense that can hit under
the stock Compensation Plan has already
hit this chart is fairly
self-explanatory huge stock-based
compensation expenses throughout 2020 in
particular coming into 2021 but as we
stand today they do not move the needle
at all another very important Point here
from James Tesla's gross Automotive
margin excluding regulatory credits has
improved through 2021-2022 even as
Revenue per vehicle decreased that's
hard to do gross Automotive margins here
in green average selling price here in
Gray we can see a huge decline in
average selling prices obviously the
introduction of the mass-market vehicles
to three and the Y that's going to
happen Tes are also prioritizing
delivery of performance variants Etc the
higher margin higher profit Vehicles so
over time Tesla faces two battles to
maintain margins approximately where
they are today give or take mid 20s
maybe 30 overall on average while at the
same time continuing to drive their
average selling prices down and it's
time for my absolute favorite chart
every time this gets me this is the
chart the one chart today's video could
have literally just been this for 10
minutes just stare at this [ __ ] chart
until it sinks in we're looking at Tesla
quarterly Revenue in millions from the
company's Inception to the present date
obviously still awaiting Q4 numbers I
just want to highlight a few very
important moments in time 2012 president
413 million dollars in revenue for the
full [ __ ] year 2013 Tesla did over 2
billion dollars in revenue for the full
year 2015 Tesla doubled that two years
later they doubled their revenue to over
4 billion guess what two years after
that almost tripled their revenue from
around 4 billion to almost 12 billion
two years after that another more than
doubling in Revenue to almost 25 billion
guess what two years after that another
doubling of Revenue and to put things in
context Tesla's Q3 just the third
quarter in 2022 in terms of Revenue was
more than Tesla's entire 2018 Revenue as
a company another way to look at this in
2022 just the first two quarters of the
Year alone almost the same as Tesla's
first three quarters in 2021 more than
the entire 2020 and obviously
significantly more than 2019 2018 blah
blah blah Tesla is approximately
doubling their revenue every two years
and they're still just getting started
like I said this is the one [ __ ]
chart please take the time to let this
sink in now this is Tesla's next 12
months non-gaap EPs and now we have
historical data and James's forecast for
Tesla average FSD Revenue at time of
purchase per delivery in other words if
you're factor in every Tesla vehicle
sold what's the average FSD Revenue per
vehicle many customers don't choose the
option some do so this is the average
total FSD Revenue including paying
customers who actually bought it and
those who didn't choose the option
historically this number less than two
thousand dollars per vehicle sold as of
2022 James estimates an enormous in fact
exponential increase in average revenue
per vehicle sold and I totally agree
again the more capable this software
becomes the more people are going to
choose the software package the remember
that word two letters again describes
this chart perfectly doesn't it we're
looking at Tesla Global deliveries from
2018 to 2022 and James being a little
bit of a troll as well on the right here
attention Tesla Q please fill in your
2020 3 forecasts here the point he's
making if they don't fit in that box the
idea that Tesla's not growing they're
not a Growth Company they're overvalued
doesn't really stand on its own two legs
does it I just do want to emphasize here
q1 2018 Tesla delivers less than 30 000
Vehicles by Q4 2021 just a few years
later Tesla had more than 10xed their
deliveries how long until they 10x again
for the finance nerds here Tesla PE
ratio compression and range let me
translate if you're not super autistic
in a total Finance nerd the lower these
numbers go the cheaper Tesla stock is
according to one of the stock market's
primary metrics PE ratio I can see now
Tesla stock is cheaper at any point
today than it's been in 2020 or 2021
significantly cheaper Tesla's quarter
npe at the end of 2022 28 end of 2020
322 and some very hilarious commentary
from James here some teslaco Believers
like to claim that Tesla's operating
expense numbers must be fraudulent
because they aren't increasing by enough
and this is actually a serious point
that many of these Tesla Q virgins
actually like literally the numbers are
too good it must be fraud like this
actually is an argument that is made
quite regularly by these dots they just
can't fathom not possible therefore it
must be fraud does not compute so these
are Tesla's operating expenses axles
through the 2022 Q3 and then a forecast
as we can see it's been a mild increase
Tesla's operating expenses have
approximately doubled from early 2018
until late 2022. almost doubled
obviously these will continue to
increase over time should go without
saying but in case anyone's getting lost
in the weeds here as Tesla the company
scales up they have more factories more
equipment more everything it's going to
cost them more to continue to operate
their business but the question is well
their operating expenses grow in line in
proportion to revenue or can they grow
at a lower rate meaning Tesla becomes
more and more profitable over time and
spoiler alert the answer to that is
obviously yes this is where we're going
to see Tesla's insane operating leverage
really come into play revenue is going
to grow at a staggering rate operating
expenses are going to grow at incredibly
low rate they will grow but nowhere near
as fast as overall Revenue meaning Tesla
will continue to print more and more
money over time and finally this
absolute monstrosity Tesla Q4 revenues
and expenses per diluted share we're
looking at a breakdown of total revenue
in Q4 on the left here in Green
Automotive Revenue 6.53 energy Revenue
45 cents all other Revenue 59 cents
breaking that down further we've got
expenses here from top to bottom we've
got Gap EPS total stock based
compensation restructuring and other
taxes SG a blah blah blah if you guys
want to nerd it out and pause feel free
the biggest expense overall obviously
the cost for automotive second largest
energy the table on the right here
showing the breakdown of adjusted
non-gaap EPS of a dollar and three cents
again if you want to nerd it out and
pause Feel Free as always there's a link
in the description to the full tweet
thread highly recommend you guys and
girls go through it I've just run
through some highlights here and James
will be making some individual videos
running through each of his own charts
in much more detail doing a much better
job than I have so stay tuned for those
but I really wanted to share these I
think these charts provide some valuable
insights into where test is coming from
where they're at now and where they're
heading to between you and I I think
James may be a little bit conservative
on these estimates but this is coming
from a guy with a very clear optimism
bias so who knows but in either case I
think the main takeaway from these
charts is quite simple it's that word
that two-letter word we discussed
earlier everything that matters up
profits deliveries you name it up if you
were to Overlay Tesla stock price over
the last probably 18 months on top of
these charts you'd notice a little bit
of a discrepancy while everything the
Tesla's doing is going up exponentially
the stock price has been collapsing
almost as exponentially makes a whole
lot of sense doesn't it and don't forget
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